Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb7db…d69c other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$112 (+2%) realized +$161 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%152W / 71L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$62
14 days−$53
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$207
politics 20% −$25
sports 12% +$66
world 5% −$164
finance 3% +$28
economics 2% +$85
tech 1% −$23
crypto 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +33.4% +20.7% 86% 71% +17.8%
≤30d 27 -12.6% -20.9% 56% 48% -28.3%
≤90d 49 -17.1% -25.0% 55% 49% -24.5%
all 223 +7.4% -2.9% 68% 63% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 63% -6.7%
10% -12.2% 52% -15.6%
15% -20.7% 35% -23.8%
20% -28.4% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$440
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses152 / 71
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)223 / 236
History coverage236d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 67¢ 96¢ $52 $74 +$23 (+43%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 87¢ 94¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 56¢ 54¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 77¢ 81¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 52¢ 19¢ $60 $22 −$38 (-63%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $45 $9 −$36 (-79%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 8¢ $34 $7 −$27 (-79%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 +$16 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $32 +$15 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$24 +119%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $50 +$12 +23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $37 −$36 -97%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 02 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 02 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 +$9 +29%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $44 +$14 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $68 +$4 +6%
Esenler Erokspor vs. Fenerbahce May 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $40 +$28 +69%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e May 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? May 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-04-27? May 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 21 $63 −$63 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Another Canada election called by June 30? May 21 $50 +$25 +50%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 21 $60 +$51 +85%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 21 $20 +$45 +223%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 15 $40 +$9 +21%
Konyaspor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $45 +$15 +32%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $60 +$5 +9%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $30 +$19 +64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $35 +$11 +33%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $60 +$37 +62%
Will Venstre win <15 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish Mar 25 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in t Mar 25 $45 +$18 +39%
Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2 Mar 24 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Kocaelispor vs. Gaziantep FK end in a draw? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-02-21? Mar 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $50 +$36 +73%
Will Trabzonspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16? Mar 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 21 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Mar 21 $59 +$15 +25%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-02-20? Feb 25 $35 +$14 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $16 1h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $40 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $32 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $20 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $17 25h
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 6d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $62 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 47¢ $29 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY No 49¢ $37 13d
Nothing Ever Happens: May SELL Nothing 100¢ $66 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 0¢ $0 13d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 87¢ $50 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 78¢ $57 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 100¢ $39 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $58 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 77¢ $30 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $44 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $72 16d
Esenler Erokspor vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 81¢ $10 17d
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $40 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 80¢ $50 17d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 94¢ $68 18d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 90¢ $60 18d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $81 19d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $68 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.87 · official $439.92 (match) · 651 history records