Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7db…85c7 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$8
other 19% −$25
politics 12% +$2
finance 3% −$1
sports 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 29 -4.3% -13.4% 31% 3% -9.8%
all 43 +6.0% -4.1% 42% 14% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 14% -10.2%
10% -13.2% 12% -18.8%
15% -21.6% 12% -26.7%
20% -29.3% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage526d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $106 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $377 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $31 −$2 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 −$4 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $66 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $363 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $310 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $3 +$2 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $134 +$2 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will the match between Union St.-Gilloise and Ajax Amsterdam end in a Feb 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Monaco vs. Benfica end in a draw? Feb 13 $7 +$2 +37%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in January? Feb 13 $4 +$8 +194%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 13 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Feb 12 $3 +$8 +300%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 7? Feb 06 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $10 −$2 -16%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $3 $0 +1%
Supercopa Semfinal: Real Madrid vs. Mallorca Jan 10 $8 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $26 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $18 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $26 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $26 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $26 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $29 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $29 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records