Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb7da…6bfc world 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$32 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 53L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$7
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$32
sports 27% +$18
other 22% −$16
economics 3% $0
politics 2% −$4
crypto 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 35 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 48 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 4% -9.3%
all 94 -1.9% -11.2% 44% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage490d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $50 $46 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $476 −$10 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $179 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $192 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $192 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $378 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $425 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $212 −$22 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $204 +$9 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $191 +$8 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $175 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $175 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $370 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $148 +$5 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $164 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $162 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $590 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $435 +$3 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $203 −$5 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $198 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $74 +$19 +25%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $179 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $518 +$10 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $338 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $30 −$6 -20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $4 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $76 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $338 +$20 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $14 −$3 -20%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $376 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $52 +$4 +7%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,169 +$10 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1,167 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $680 −$13 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $6 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $149 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $165 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $192 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $192 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $192 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $192 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $155 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $174 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $51 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $175 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $175 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $175 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $173 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $181 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.33 · official $46.33 (match) · 377 history records