Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7d9…c572 sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$155 (-2%) realized −$179 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%113W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$341
14 days−$278
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$391
crypto 7% −$54
other 6% −$90
world 4% +$164
finance 2% +$60
tech 1% +$29
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -21.8% -29.2% 36% 36% -38.8%
≤30d 70 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 43% -20.3%
≤90d 210 +10.7% +0.2% 53% 53% -13.4%
all 215 +8.6% -1.7% 53% 52% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 52% -13.7%
10% -11.1% 49% -21.9%
15% -19.7% 46% -29.5%
20% -27.6% 41% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses113 / 102
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions5
Markets (closed)215 / 220
History coverage94d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 50¢ 100¢ $44 $87 +$44 (+100%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 38¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$19 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $15 +$35 +226%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $120 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $62 +$58 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $71 −$50 -70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $59 +$59 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $95 +$117 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$22 +88%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$51 +249%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 +$14 +48%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$38 +188%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $34 +$39 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +65%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 +$28 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY WW Team 50¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $31 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY HOTU 37¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 64¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 32¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 38¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $120 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $119 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $62 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $94 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 72¢ $50 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $59 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.86 · official $224.46 (match) · 399 history records