Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7d9…af29 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%22W / 53L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$7
politics 29% $0
other 18% +$19
sports 14% −$5
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 19 -1.7% -11.1% 16% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 35 -3.2% -12.4% 26% 3% -9.7%
all 75 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses22 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage324d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $97 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $48 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $101 −$4 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$2 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $99 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $139 −$5 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $107 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $137 +$17 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $84 −$3 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $240 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $12 −$6 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $3 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $34 +$2 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $17 −$6 -38%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $35 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $43 −$1 -3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $743 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $614 −$1 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $18 +$19 +106%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $40 $0 -1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $223 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $72 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 19 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $89 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $85 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $97 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $26 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $75 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $71 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $73 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.67 · official $88.23 (match) · 290 history records