Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb7d8…4873 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$280 · open +$231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$410
sports 24% +$134
other 3% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +23.1% +11.3% 43% 43% -6.7%
≤30d 80 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 41% -6.8%
≤90d 80 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 41% -6.8%
all 80 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 41% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 41% -6.8%
10% -19.4% 40% -15.7%
15% -27.2% 38% -23.8%
20% -34.4% 36% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$54 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$231
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage23d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 100¢ $237 $468 +$231 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$59 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$158 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$62 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $141 +$96 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$49 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $84 +$182 +217%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $111 +$99 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$138 +685%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $92 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$186 +90%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $123 −$77 -62%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 02 $238 −$75 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $39 +$35 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $46 +$41 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $162 +$209 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $43 −$34 -79%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 28 $49 +$63 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $77 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $57 +$48 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $55 +$37 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 25 $24 +$59 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 25 $96 +$70 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $70 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $221 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $63 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $98 47m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $139 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $141 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $141 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $93 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $83 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $69 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $18 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $85 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $92 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $201 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.39 · official $468.39 (match) · 202 history records