Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7d8…a577 sports 131 markets active 3h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$816 (+5%) realized +$815 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%64W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$245est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$445
7 days+$627
14 days+$918
30 days+$754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,296
other 7% −$649
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +10.4% -0.1% 57% 57% +0.1%
≤30d 97 +12.1% +1.4% 52% 52% -5.1%
≤90d 129 +9.1% -1.2% 50% 50% -6.2%
all 129 +9.1% -1.2% 50% 50% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 50% -6.2%
10% -10.7% 49% -15.2%
15% -19.3% 47% -23.4%
20% -27.2% 40% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$122 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$815
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses64 / 65
Est. fees paid−$245
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage60d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 50¢ $90 $145 +$55 (+61%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 73¢ 52¢ $194 $139 −$54 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $137 +$101 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $464 +$161 +35%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $182 +$199 +109%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $327 +$309 +95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $70 +$110 +157%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $226 +$69 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $440 −$440 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $118 +$67 +57%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $176 +$73 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $318 −$318 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 +$199 +197%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $82 +$101 +124%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $230 +$198 +86%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 12 $91 −$90 -99%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $91 +$99 +109%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $134 +$102 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $159 +$69 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $163 −$160 -98%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $140 +$204 +145%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $107 −$105 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $148 −$145 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 11 $185 −$162 -88%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $239 −$236 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $247 −$47 -19%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 10 $103 −$101 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $687 +$666 +97%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $176 +$73 +42%
Syria leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $64 +$101 +158%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $293 +$134 +46%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $66 −$65 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $125 +$100 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $172 +$296 +172%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $115 −$113 -99%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $210 −$65 -31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $114 −$112 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) Jun 06 $119 +$99 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $56 −$55 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $129 −$126 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $77 −$76 -98%
Game Handicap: ME (-2.5) vs PCIFIC (+2.5) Jun 05 $425 +$433 +102%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $108 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 05 $127 −$124 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $130 +$68 +52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $57 +$98 +172%
Map Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs ARETE (+1.5) Jun 03 $145 +$187 +129%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 03 $262 −$262 -100%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 03 $101 −$99 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $195 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 57¢ $137 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $9 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $91 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $91 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $47 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $167 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $104 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $231 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $233 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $15 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $41 17h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 29h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 72¢ $214 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $45 36h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $139 36h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 36h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $7 36h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $69 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $18 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $66 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $0 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $150 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $151 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.38 · official $285.83 (match) · 376 history records