Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7d7…1a16 weather 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$164 (+3%) realized +$160 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate76%120W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$27
14 days+$92
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$96
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 67% 17% -5.3%
≤30d 61 -1.9% -11.2% 79% 26% -8.2%
≤90d 157 +9.7% -0.8% 76% 34% -8.0%
all 157 +9.7% -0.8% 76% 34% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 34% -8.0%
10% -10.3% 17% -16.8%
15% -18.9% 8% -24.8%
20% -26.9% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses120 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage65d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $62 $65 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $31 −$7 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $90 +$29 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $140 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $62 +$11 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $46 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $31 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $135 +$23 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $108 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $31 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $93 +$12 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $94 −$93 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $62 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $47 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $46 −$14 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $141 +$35 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $62 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $62 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $155 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $119 +$63 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $9 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $31 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $94 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $30 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 22? May 22 $31 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $16 −$9 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 46m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 51m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 77¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? SELL No 68¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 88¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 84¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.21 · official $65.21 (match) · 768 history records