trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 75% | 50% | -5.3% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +17.3% | +6.2% | 71% | 57% | +1.0% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +19.7% | +8.3% | 67% | 40% | -6.0% |
| all | 33 | +7.8% | -2.5% | 58% | 18% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.5% | 18% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -11.8% | 18% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -20.4% | 15% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -28.2% | 9% | -32.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 85¢ | 86¢ | $85 | $86 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | $83 | $82 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | $83 | $82 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 72¢ | 72¢ | $72 | $72 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $66 | $66 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $64 | $64 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $51 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $91 | +$9 | +10% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $69 | +$31 | +46% |
| Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 | Jun 17 | $58 | −$57 | -99% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $70 | +$30 | +44% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $33 | +$31 | +94% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $44 | +$56 | +129% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $494 | −$446 | -90% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 18 | $3,352 | +$228 | +7% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 13 | $8,352 | +$248 | +3% |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? | May 06 | $995 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 07 | $23 | +$77 | +336% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Celtics | Mar 30 | $88 | −$14 | -16% |
| Bulls vs. Thunder | Mar 28 | $30 | +$8 | +27% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Mar 26 | $100 | −$83 | -83% |
| Thunder vs. 76ers | Mar 23 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? | Mar 23 | $12,642 | +$349 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Mar 15 | $10 | −$1 | -11% |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Mar 05 | $13,434 | +$369 | +3% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Mar 04 | $13,539 | −$212 | -2% |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | Feb 26 | $3,991 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jan 05 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 30 | $9 | +$1 | +10% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Nov 25 | $193 | +$3 | +2% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Nov 18 | $92 | −$22 | -24% |
| Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 30 | $341 | −$121 | -35% |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 30 | $383 | +$15 | +4% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Oct 29 | $199 | +$2 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 27 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 19 | $532 | +$45 | +8% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 03 | $200 | −$4 | -2% |