Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7d2…3287 other 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$441 (-4%) realized −$336 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%151W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$48
14 days−$83
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$152
crypto 18% −$27
sports 17% −$23
world 5% −$201
politics 2% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.7% -2.6% 43% 43% -13.7%
≤30d 48 +10.4% -0.1% 40% 40% -8.9%
≤90d 170 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 29% -26.0%
all 415 +8.2% -2.1% 36% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 36% -13.9%
10% -11.5% 35% -22.1%
15% -20.0% 35% -29.7%
20% -27.9% 33% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$24 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses151 / 264
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)415 / 418
History coverage138d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Over 50¢ 34¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $93 $3 −$89 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 −$36 -72%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$17 -34%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$52 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $32 +$72 +226%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$22 +71%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $23 +$39 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $61 +$38 +63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $53 +$48 +91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$41 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +237%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$57 +192%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $48 −$13 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $57 +$42 +74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $84 −$38 -45%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $52 −$51 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$53 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $26 +$27 +104%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $49 −$48 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$57 +566%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$70 +233%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $24 +$75 +312%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 +$49 +98%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$49 +185%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 52m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 17¢ $14 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 33¢ $34 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $32 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $28 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 38h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $52 39h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $30 41h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $23 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 28¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $46 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $68 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $48 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $101 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $95 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $53 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.86 · official $37.87 (match) · 1108 history records