Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7d0…2f3a crypto 2133 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,366 (+7%) realized +$1,366 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%1328W / 684L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$189
14 days+$773
30 days+$1,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,748
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 +8.7% -1.7% 64% 64% -0.2%
≤30d 1081 +11.4% +0.8% 67% 67% +1.1%
≤90d 2012 +8.5% -1.9% 66% 64% -0.8%
all 2012 +8.5% -1.9% 66% 64% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 64% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 58% -10.3%
15% -19.8% 53% -18.9%
20% -27.7% 44% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1328 / 684
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2012 / 2133
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2012 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$9 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records