Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb7cb…e02f sports 418 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,070 (+1%) realized +$13,086 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%375W / 31L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,327per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$493est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 126d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$8,601
crypto 32% −$9,961
other 5% +$124
economics 3% +$525
weather 3% −$6
world 2% −$214
tech 1% +$10
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.9% -11.2% 94% 13% -9.8%
≤30d 98 -5.6% -14.6% 91% 8% -12.0%
≤90d 319 -1.6% -10.9% 92% 8% -8.4%
all 406 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$2,847) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$771 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$4,900
Realized+$13,086
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses375 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$493
Open positions13
Markets (closed)406 / 418
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$2,327
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 95¢ 94¢ $3,502 $3,484 −$18 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $989 $988 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $9 $21 +$11 (+122%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-42%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $195 −$195 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 29 $6,293 +$10 +0%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $952 +$48 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $481 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $993 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1,038 +$1 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $484 +$16 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $190 +$10 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $476 +$24 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $265 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $455 $0 +0%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $1,154 +$1 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $94 +$6 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 24 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $999 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $996 +$4 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $195 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $357 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $777 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $277 −$276 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $190 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $279 −$223 -80%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $377 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 95¢ $3,508 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6,187 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $184 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 89¢ $89 20h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $98 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $989 20h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $969 39h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $69 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $30 39h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $104 39h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 39h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $135 39h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 39h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $993 39h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $79 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $952 39h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $481 39h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 95¢ $190 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $89 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $94 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $484 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $190 4d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $265 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY 89¢ $50 4d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 5d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $8 5d
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,154 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $285 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,899.63 · official $4,899.68 (match) · 3500 history records