Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B7
0xb7c8…e573
other · 91 markets active 2h ago
7.5score
+$13 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$844 · open −$831
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,396
Realized+$844
Unrealized−$831
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions22
Markets (closed)69 / 91
History coverage158d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 22 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$237
14 days+$464
30 days−$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $1,202 $1,149 −$52 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 47¢ 24¢ $1,693 $880 −$813 (-48%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 60¢ $313 $563 +$249 (+80%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 57¢ 24¢ $854 $364 −$490 (-57%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $84 $302 +$218 (+259%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $205 $244 +$39 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $139 $125 −$15 (-11%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $92 $89 −$3 (-3%)
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 14¢ 44¢ $22 $70 +$48 (+218%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $65 $61 −$4 (-7%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 23¢ 18¢ $70 $53 −$17 (-24%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $56 $48 −$8 (-13%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 28¢ $32 $46 +$14 (+42%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+77%)
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $31 $2 −$29 (-92%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Rockets 56¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $101 +$4 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $120 +$233 +194%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $145 −$145 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $76 +$49 +65%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $27 −$26 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $243 +$357 +147%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $168 +$82 +49%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $35 +$65 +185%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $493 +$37 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $200 +$200 +100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $150 −$46 -31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,234 −$1,234 -100%
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 19 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $403 +$79 +20%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 14 $156 −$151 -97%
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 14 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $100 +$133 +133%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $51 +$25 +50%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $160 +$1,932 +1207%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $51 +$65 +126%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $56 −$55 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $35 +$19 +55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $693 −$693 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $100 +$79 +79%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $400 +$24 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $100 −$83 -83%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $30 +$19 +65%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $200 +$800 +400%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $35 +$24 +68%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $40 −$39 -98%
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 20 $100 +$61 +61%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $50 +$33 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $50 +$104 +208%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $100 +$24 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 67% +$24
other 23% −$266
sports 8% +$344
crypto 1% −$145
weather 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 10h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 10h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 12h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 15h
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 15h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 15h
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 16h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 16h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 16h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 16h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 16h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $111 17h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $105 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $57 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +99.2% +80.2% 100% 50% +87.8%
≤30d 20 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 35% -22.9%
≤90d 47 +16.9% +5.8% 49% 40% +4.3%
all 69 +5.4% -4.6% 49% 42% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 42% -0.6%
10% -13.8% 39% -10.1%
15% -22.1% 36% -18.8%
20% -29.7% 30% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,395.98 · official $4,396.00 (match) · 344 history records