Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7c2…9ab4 other 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,433 (-6%) realized −$1,429 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate60%57W / 38L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$271
14 days+$241
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1,313
other 22% +$233
sports 14% −$320
crypto 2% −$86
politics 2% +$8
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.6% -15.5% 51% 28% -0.3%
≤30d 52 -10.9% -19.4% 56% 29% -4.3%
≤90d 64 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 28% -14.2%
all 95 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 26% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 26% -15.3%
10% -25.4% 13% -23.4%
15% -32.6% 7% -30.8%
20% -39.2% 3% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$73 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1,429
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses57 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage152d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$27 -77%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $65 +$23 +35%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $191 +$126 +66%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $247 +$33 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$14 -83%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$24 -58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $142 +$28 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $114 +$25 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $261 +$30 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 +$4 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $244 +$125 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$36 -28%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $177 +$4 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$11 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 +$3 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $62 −$4 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $85 $0 -0%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 −$10 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $38 +$17 +44%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $302 +$2 +1%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 10 $14 +$4 +27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $55 −$35 -64%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 02 $9 +$2 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $28 −$27 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $206 +$38 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $502 +$66 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $34 −$33 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 15m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 16m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 25m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $33 25m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $26 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 67¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.11 · official $35.11 (match) · 536 history records