Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7c2…51f9 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,013 (-6%) realized −$1,297 · open +$284
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 44L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days+$707
14 days+$707
30 days+$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,305
other 20% +$233
world 6% −$35
politics 3% −$79
crypto 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +20.5% +9.0% 42% 29% +6.1%
≤30d 24 +20.5% +9.0% 42% 29% +6.1%
≤90d 31 +23.5% +11.7% 45% 35% +7.7%
all 74 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 31% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 31% -16.8%
10% -17.3% 31% -24.8%
15% -25.3% 30% -32.1%
20% -32.6% 28% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$220 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$1,297
Unrealized+$284
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage698d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu Alessia Marinescu 26¢ 96¢ $122 $452 +$330 (+270%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 31¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $499 −$493 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $498 +$121 +24%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $333 +$235 +71%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$16 -16%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 −$203 -80%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $226 +$8 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $200 +$18 +9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$125 +124%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $255 +$571 +224%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $246 −$243 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $122 +$870 +712%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $57 −$36 -63%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $128 −$126 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $117 −$70 -60%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $96 −$95 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$4 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$56 +114%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $142 +$474 +334%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $128 −$125 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $161 +$277 +172%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $123 −$121 -98%
Zagreb: Marco Cecchinato vs Harry Wendelken May 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi May 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 10 $16 +$12 +73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova May 10 $5 +$12 +226%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $91 +$58 +64%
ASB Classic: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Jakub Mensik Jan 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Valentin Royer Jan 06 $499 −$499 -100%
Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $207 −$207 -100%
Brisbane International: Marketa Vondrousova vs Magdalena Frech Jan 05 $252 +$138 +55%
ASB Classic: Sloane Stephens vs Renata Zarazua Jan 05 $100 −$92 -92%
Brisbane International: Dayana Yastremska vs Talia Gibson Jan 05 $205 +$147 +72%
Brisbane International: Alexei Popyrin vs Quentin Halys Jan 05 $99 +$106 +106%
Pacers vs. Magic Jan 04 $497 −$497 -100%
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Tulane Green Wave Jan 04 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $241 −$241 -100%
Sabres vs. Blue Jackets Jan 04 $343 +$200 +58%
Rolex Paris Masters: Learner Tien vs Nuno Borges Oct 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Anastasija Sevastova vs Maya Joint Oct 27 $992 −$992 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Arthur Cazaux Oct 27 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva Oct 27 $693 −$693 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Hanyu Guo vs Alina Korneeva Oct 27 $998 −$998 -100%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Oct 26 $334 −$334 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31? Oct 26 $322 +$12 +4%
Celtics vs. Pistons Oct 26 $367 −$367 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu BUY Alessia Marinescu 26¢ $125 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $499 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $498 10h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 31¢ $69 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $568 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $84 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $84 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 11h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $50 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $199 15h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $49 15h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $204 15h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $234 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $218 16h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $126 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $100 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $101 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $101 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $100 2d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $100 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $100 2d
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi BUY Ilay Yoruk 30¢ $255 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $246 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston SELL Oksana Selekhmeteva 11¢ $21 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 45¢ $98 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $101 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 28¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.05 · official $442.68 · 138 history records