Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7c1…675e world 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,471 (+18%) realized +$6,622 · open +$849
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%84W / 49L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days+$1,738
14 days+$1,607
30 days+$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$4,957
other 11% +$4
sports 6% +$2,264
weather 2% −$54
politics 2% +$274
crypto 0% −$3
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 40% +9.0%
≤30d 22 -45.6% -50.8% 23% 18% -2.9%
≤90d 76 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 51% +2.8%
all 133 -2.7% -12.0% 63% 50% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 50% +8.7%
10% -20.4% 34% -1.7%
15% -28.1% 25% -11.2%
20% -35.1% 16% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$77 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$10,004
Realized+$6,622
Unrealized+$849
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses84 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions19
Markets (closed)133 / 152
History coverage196d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 74¢ $5,856 $6,217 +$361 (+6%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $797 $795 −$2 (-0%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $417 $493 +$76 (+18%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 63¢ 96¢ $306 $466 +$160 (+52%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 74¢ 98¢ $285 $378 +$93 (+33%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $318 +$18 (+6%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ $62 $244 +$181 (+290%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 84¢ 88¢ $210 $221 +$11 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $157 $173 +$15 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $156 $170 +$14 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $158 $156 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $144 $120 −$24 (-17%)
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 84¢ $53 $74 +$21 (+39%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $154 $63 −$91 (-59%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $35 $57 +$22 (+62%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $35 $26 −$10 (-27%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$3 -26%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $165 −$33 -20%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,563 −$307 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4,873 +$1,897 +39%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Jun 12 $881 +$184 +21%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $121 −$3 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 +61%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $82 +$2 +3%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -97%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $29 −$28 -97%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will MIBR win CS Asia Championships 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will B8 win CS Asia Championships 2026? Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SINNERS win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $33 +$7 +22%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $12 −$11 -97%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 26 $14 −$13 -97%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 26 $8 −$8 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $385 −$99 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1,116 −$703 -63%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $249 +$617 +248%
Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,094 +$422 +38%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 05 $900 +$10 +1%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 03 $89 +$32 +36%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 03 $98 +$113 +115%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30? May 01 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? May 01 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Russia enter Myrne by April 30, 2026? May 01 $11 +$2 +18%
Will Russia enter Borova by April 30? May 01 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30? May 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by April 30, 2026? May 01 $44 +$5 +11%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30? May 01 $49 +$3 +5%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by April 30? May 01 $93 +$10 +10%
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30? May 01 $169 +$17 +10%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30? May 01 $191 +$30 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,228 +$92 +8%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 01 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? May 01 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30? May 01 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30? May 01 $210 +$33 +16%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026? May 01 $432 +$53 +12%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Apr 30 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? Apr 27 $368 +$28 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $252 0m
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $112 1h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $333 3h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $8 4h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $8 7h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $0 16h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $10 20h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $12 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $132 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $2,256 39h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $76 42h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $9 42h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $33 43h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 43h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $12 43h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $91 45h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $19 45h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $165 3d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $499 5d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $159 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $162 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $160 5d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $148 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 5d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $619 5d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $271 5d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,003.60 · official $10,003.60 (match) · 776 history records