Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb7bf…c3d6 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$438 (+21%) realized +$221 · open +$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$725
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +47.0% +33.0% 83% 83% +23.3%
≤30d 6 +47.0% +33.0% 83% 83% +23.3%
≤90d 6 +47.0% +33.0% 83% 83% +23.3%
all 6 +47.0% +33.0% 83% 83% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.0% 83% +23.3%
10% +20.2% 83% +11.5%
15% +8.6% 67% +0.8%
20% -2.0% 33% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$13 · ×8.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×40.3 per $1 lost it wins $40.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized+$221
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $695 $912 +$217 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $324 +$96 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $300 −$13 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $432 +$191 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $143 +$76 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $99 +$115 +116%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$43 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 85¢ $419 19m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $419 21m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $287 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $287 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $324 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $300 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $432 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $143 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $99 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.35 · official $912.35 (match) · 15 history records