Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B7 0xb7b9…1e0e weather 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,977 (+62%) realized +$1,866 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$101
14 days+$169
30 days+$1,516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$1,743
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.8% -16.6% 25% 25% +18.3%
≤30d 25 +8.6% -1.8% 52% 52% +38.4%
≤90d 29 +13.5% +2.7% 52% 52% +39.7%
all 29 +13.5% +2.7% 52% 52% +39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 52% +39.7%
10% -7.2% 41% +26.3%
15% -16.1% 38% +14.1%
20% -24.3% 34% +2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$16 · ×7.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.06 per $1 lost it wins $8.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$1,866
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage100d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $200 $279 +$79 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Yes 31¢ 63¢ $30 $62 +$32 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $48 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 17 $207 +$152 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 −$42 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 08 $40 +$67 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 13? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28? Jun 02 $45 −$27 -59%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29? Jun 02 $255 +$454 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? Jun 02 $470 +$310 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $143 −$78 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $265 +$221 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $133 +$58 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $9 −$8 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $437 +$220 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $0 +$1 +252%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $53 +$13 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $263 +$161 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $64 +$12 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $211 +$38 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $104 +$13 +13%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11? May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $13 −$5 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? May 10 $47 +$102 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10? May 10 $21 +$19 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 56m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 57m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $105 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 66¢ $106 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $53 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $107 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $33 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? BUY Yes 35¢ $40 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $95 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $53 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $21 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.55 · official $341.55 (match) · 178 history records