Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7b8…db31 world 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$789 (-0%) realized −$1,407 · open +$618
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate84%76W / 15L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,019per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$96,526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,634
7 days+$2,918
14 days−$4,646
30 days−$3,708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$5,408
other 26% +$2,901
economics 20% +$975
tech 9% +$430
politics 1% −$579
finance 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 27% -5.5%
≤30d 66 -11.0% -19.5% 80% 11% -10.6%
≤90d 91 -8.6% -17.3% 84% 8% -10.1%
all 91 -8.6% -17.3% 84% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 8% -10.1%
10% -25.3% 1% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -32.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$3,394) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$735 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$96,526
Realized−$1,407
Unrealized+$618
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses76 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions36
Markets (closed)91 / 127
History coverage41d
Avg bet$4,019
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $15,222 $15,229 +$6 (+0%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $13,017 $13,004 −$14 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 95¢ 94¢ $10,937 $10,911 −$27 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $9,697 $9,965 +$268 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $9,000 $8,950 −$50 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $7,230 $7,444 +$214 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,955 $4,988 +$32 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $4,540 $4,538 −$2 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,124 $4,170 +$46 (+1%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,908 $3,990 +$82 (+2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,737 $2,739 +$2 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,837 $1,844 +$7 (+0%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,067 $1,069 +$2 (+0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $771 $777 +$6 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 94¢ 96¢ $658 $668 +$10 (+2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $629 $640 +$12 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $586 $592 +$6 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 94¢ 94¢ $566 $567 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $420 $424 +$4 (+1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $398 $399 +$1 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 93¢ 94¢ $372 $374 +$2 (+1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $356 $361 +$4 (+1%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $317 $327 +$9 (+3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $316 $318 +$2 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $285 $291 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 25 $17,316 +$229 +1%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $557 +$43 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $44,650 +$2,350 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $144 +$18 +12%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $484 +$16 +3%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 20 $234 +$46 +20%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $261 +$39 +15%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $188 +$12 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 18 $2,300 +$150 +6%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $409 +$26 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $798 +$2 +0%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $10,044 +$51 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $85,307 +$829 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1,001 −$44 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $8,462 +$98 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $3,232 +$34 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $7,360 +$14 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,930 +$70 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 15 $733 −$733 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $304 +$96 +32%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,876 +$124 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $540 +$60 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $501 +$9 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3,427 +$173 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $3,297 +$47 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $13,954 +$97 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $4,734 +$24 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9,990 +$10 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $197 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 12 $178 −$178 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 12 $227 −$227 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 12 $372 −$372 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $460 −$415 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2,413 −$2,413 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $8,363 −$1,188 -14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $3,322 −$3,322 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $5,411 +$95 +2%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,868 +$30 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $589 +$19 +3%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 08 $376 +$10 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $3,394 −$832 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $592 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $521 1m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $1,894 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $1,896 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9,820 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3,928 1h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $316 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2,417 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $420 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $167 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $4 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $71 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $47 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $128 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $97 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $19 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $30 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $19 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $19 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $637 2h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $3,844 2h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $3,364 2h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $4,775 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3,780 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,475 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,450 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $677 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $109 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96,526.36 · official $96,526.36 (match) · 1077 history records