Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7b8…68c0 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,782 (-4%) realized −$2,575 · open −$207
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 46L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$780per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,396
7 days+$1,057
14 days+$1,057
30 days+$647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$3,387
sports 30% −$7,211
crypto 3% +$166
world 3% +$596
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +39.8% +26.5% 60% 60% +4.9%
≤30d 12 +27.6% +15.5% 58% 58% -1.8%
≤90d 20 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 45% -8.5%
all 79 -8.0% -16.7% 42% 42% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 42% -13.7%
10% -24.7% 41% -21.9%
15% -32.0% 38% -29.5%
20% -38.6% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$746 vs −$597 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,693
Realized−$2,575
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage116d
Avg bet$780
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $700 $693 −$7 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $750 $553 −$197 (-26%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $450 $447 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $60 +$38 +63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,488 +$711 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $811 +$698 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $996 +$805 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $852 −$842 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $562 −$554 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $420 +$143 +34%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $209 −$200 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $203 −$200 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $205 −$200 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $708 −$700 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $708 +$438 +62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $913 +$850 +93%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 07 $1,534 −$1,057 -69%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $611 +$424 +69%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $606 −$61 -10%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $100 −$25 -25%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Mar 05 $100 −$80 -80%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Mar 05 $100 +$28 +28%
Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5 Mar 04 $6,112 −$6,112 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1,000 +$722 +72%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1,000 +$1,498 +150%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1,000 −$974 -97%
Will Fulham FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) Mar 04 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Mar 04 $2,075 +$1,990 +96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $3,955 +$2,120 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $700 +$699 +100%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Mar 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$222 +222%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $75 −$54 -72%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Mar 01 $1,000 +$921 +92%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $4,858 +$3,188 +66%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$399 +399%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$122 +61%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$301 +301%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $400 +$774 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $764 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $710 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 77¢ $98 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $60 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $454 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,488 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $811 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,801 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $996 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $852 4d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $562 25d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $420 31d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $209 32d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $203 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 15¢ $205 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $708 43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,146 43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 61¢ $708 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,763 45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $913 45d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $5 46d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,034 102d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,034 102d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 59¢ $611 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,693.35 · official $1,712.10 · 133 history records