Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7b4…8180 crypto 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 722d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+0%) realized +$130 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%196W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$102
other 2% +$11
economics 1% +$3
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 134 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 199 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.02 per $1 lost it wins $10.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

722d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses196 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)199 / 203
History coverage722d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $193 $193 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30? May 30 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 28? May 28 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 26? May 26 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 26 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 25? May 25 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 25? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $300 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? May 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 23? May 23 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 22 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 22? May 22 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? May 22 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 20? May 20 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 20 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20? May 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19? May 19 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 19? May 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 18? May 18 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 18 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 15? May 15 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 15? May 15 $160 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $193 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $192 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $300 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $300 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $300 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $300 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $190 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $300 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $300 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 21d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $300 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 22d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 25d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $300 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $300 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 25d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.31 · official $1,092.31 (match) · 414 history records