Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb7b4…ea9d world 4 markets active 15h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$14,803 (+101%) realized +$7,664 · open +$7,139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +175% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +139% what you keep after slip
Net edge+139%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$3,662per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$7,139
world 15% +$6,423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+148.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +81.7% +64.4% 50% 50% +215.6%
≤90d 3 +174.8% +148.6% 67% 67% +258.3%
all 3 +174.8% +148.6% 67% 67% +258.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +148.6% 67% +258.3%
10% +124.8% 67% +224.1%
15% +103.1% 67% +192.7%
20% +83.2% 67% +164.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +296% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +175% · $-wt +296% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,236 vs −$50 · ×64.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×128.81 per $1 lost it wins $128.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$18,872
Realized+$7,664
Unrealized+$7,139
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3,662
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $11,733 $18,872 +$7,139 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,206 +$3,175 +263%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $913 +$3,297 +361%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,468 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $535 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,678 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $976 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,330 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $902 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $217 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,523 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,691 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,161 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,381 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $402 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $402 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? SELL No 99¢ $4,210 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 19¢ $463 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 24¢ $419 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 17¢ $21 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 17¢ $9 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,871.68 · official $21,555.06 · 24 history records