Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7b3…9573 sports 521 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$528 (+0%) realized +$1,060 · open −$532
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%214W / 660L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$576per market
Trades / day85.1pace
Fees−$4,830est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$15,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$4,757
other 6% −$1,320
finance 3% +$852
world 2% +$127
crypto 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 510 -72.5% -75.1% 10% 8% -72.7%
≤30d 732 -49.9% -54.7% 21% 19% -45.0%
≤90d 874 -42.0% -47.5% 24% 22% -34.1%
all 874 -42.0% -47.5% 24% 22% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.5% 22% -34.1%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 20% -40.4%
15% -57.1% 17% -46.2%
20% -61.3% 14% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$264 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$15,400
Realized+$1,060
Unrealized−$532
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses214 / 660
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$4,830
Open positions24
Markets (closed)874 / 521
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$576
Trades / day85.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No 85¢ 81¢ $4,558 $4,364 −$194 (-4%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No 72¢ 64¢ $3,969 $3,559 −$410 (-10%)
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 76¢ 74¢ $3,388 $3,280 −$108 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $897 $1,015 +$117 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $548 $565 +$16 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $480 $475 −$5 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $324 $395 +$71 (+22%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $358 $354 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 34¢ $244 $261 +$17 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $174 $187 +$12 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $204 $175 −$29 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $172 $133 −$39 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $42 $79 +$37 (+88%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $51 $70 +$19 (+38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $105 $65 −$40 (-38%)
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 82¢ 82¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $54 $43 −$11 (-21%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $11 −$6 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs French Flair - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Antonia Ruzic vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 18 $167 −$167 -100%
LoL: S2G Esports vs PCIFIC (BO3) - TCL Playoffs Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $446 −$448 -101%
Raptors vs. Wizards Jun 18 $0 −$2,768 -3539540%
Australian Open Women's: Tamara Zidansek vs Yue Yuan Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Will RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Jun 18 $591 −$918 -155%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-12-24? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-14? Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 18 $388 −$516 -133%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Birmingham City FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $435 −$435 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elise Mertens vs Ella Seidel Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $227 −$236 -104%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $81 −$15 -18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 +$123 +10282%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $183 −$183 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $1,571 −$1,571 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $214 +$569 +266%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: BIG vs Team Orange Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,481 −$2,475 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $998 −$972 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$93 -92%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game Jun 18 $126 −$141 -112%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $62 +$58 +93%
Barcelona Open: Reilly Opelka vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Jun 18 $84 −$127 -151%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $171 −$632 -369%
Santa Cruz: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Carlos Prado Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Gam Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 36m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $548 37m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $100 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $126 51m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $362 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $487 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 12¢ $58 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $140 1h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $204 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 12h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $5 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $2 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $2 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $15 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $1 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $194 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $48 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $200 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $7 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $5 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $4 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $321 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 48¢ $744 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $497 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,399.55 · official $15,400.21 (match) · 3500 history records