Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb7af…6d48 crypto 59 markets active 6d ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$436 (-12%) realized −$436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$484
politics 6% $0
other 4% +$6
sports 3% +$11
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +5.7% -4.4% 56% 56% -2.9%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.4% 56% 56% -2.9%
≤90d 18 +5.7% -4.4% 56% 56% -2.9%
all 59 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 22% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 22% -21.0%
10% -17.3% 22% -28.6%
15% -25.2% 22% -35.5%
20% -32.6% 20% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$35 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage349d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -97%
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 23 $9 −$3 -33%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Playo Feb 23 $16 +$8 +52%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of January 2 Feb 03 $10 +$6 +61%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 31? Nov 27 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 6AM ET Oct 17 $1,237 −$617 -50%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $16 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 11? Jul 12 $17 $0 +0%
Mariners vs. Yankees Jul 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Braves vs. Athletics Jul 11 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Jul 10 $29 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will KrF win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Jul 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Jul 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Jul 07 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 5d
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 32¢ $6 114d
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 47¢ $9 114d
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Playo BUY EYEBALLERS 66¢ $16 134d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of January 2 BUY No 62¢ $10 154d
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? BUY No 100¢ $1 189d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 202d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 229d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 6AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $617 243d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 266d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 266d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 267d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 268d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records