Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7ad…68c9 sports 330 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$658 (-6%) realized −$649 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%170W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$26
14 days−$326
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$785
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 54% -0.5%
≤30d 115 -6.2% -15.2% 49% 47% -34.2%
≤90d 328 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 51% -15.8%
all 328 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 51% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 51% -15.8%
10% -25.1% 46% -23.8%
15% -32.3% 38% -31.2%
20% -38.9% 31% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$649
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses170 / 158
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions2
Markets (closed)328 / 330
History coverage78d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 75¢ 52¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 83¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $15 +$11 +76%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $5 +$4 +81%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +145%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $4 −$2 -39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $15 +$3 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 +$13 +78%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$9 -46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 +$17 +101%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$8 +186%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 +$5 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $32 +$17 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 +$12 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $16 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13 +$10 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $12 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 +$7 +76%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoff Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $38 −$16 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $30 52m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 100¢ $30 53m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 83¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P SELL Walczaki 99¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 54¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 28¢ $8 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 53¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 56¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 82¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 37¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 96¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $17 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.52 · official $21.15 (match) · 711 history records