Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb7ad…80f2 crypto 1613 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate90%1452W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 +1.7% -8.0% 92% 26% -7.7%
≤30d 501 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 25% -8.2%
≤90d 772 -0.5% -9.9% 89% 41% -10.2%
all 1614 -0.0% -9.5% 90% 22% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 22% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1452 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1614 / 1613
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1614 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.46 · official $2.46 (match) · 3500 history records