Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B7 0xb7ac…097f other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$97 (-39%) realized −$97 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day6.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-14.3%	-22.5%	50%	38%	-56.1%
≤30d	8	-14.3%	-22.5%	50%	38%	-56.1%
≤90d	8	-14.3%	-22.5%	50%	38%	-56.1%
all	8	-14.3%	-22.5%	50%	38%	-56.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.5%	38%	-56.1%
10%	-29.9%	38%	-60.3%
15%	-36.7%	38%	-64.1%
20%	-42.9%	38%	-67.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$32 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.24 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized−$97

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day6.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$27	$27	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	66¢	64¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$71	−$70	-99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$16	+158%
Brazil to win the second half?	Jun 20	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30	+$2	+7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$5	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$27	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	65¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$7	24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	32h
Brazil to win the second half?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	2d
Brazil to win the second half?	BUY Yes	81¢	$30	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	95¢	$32	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$30	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$15	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.21 · official $30.21 (match) · 18 history records