Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb7ac…7af6 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$32 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate91%68W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$56
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$9
other 24% +$39
weather 16% +$1
tech 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
sports 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 36 -15.0% -23.1% 81% 6% -6.4%
≤90d 67 -6.4% -15.3% 90% 7% -7.6%
all 75 -5.2% -14.2% 91% 8% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 8% -7.6%
10% -22.4% 4% -16.4%
15% -29.9% 3% -24.5%
20% -36.8% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses68 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)75 / 84
History coverage147d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $47 +$53 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on March 15? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 30? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 23? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on May 23? May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 23? May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 22? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 15? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on May 1 May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 9? May 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 7? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? May 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April May 04 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 04 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 27h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $10 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $5 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 22d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 26d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 26d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.58 · official $90.57 (match) · 175 history records