Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb7aa…d7b7 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-14%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%33W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$7
other 28% −$7
sports 11% +$2
politics 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 100% +9.4%
≤30d 1 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 100% +9.4%
≤90d 4 -69.8% -72.7% 25% 25% -54.0%
all 90 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 30% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -25.0%
10% -21.9% 26% -32.2%
15% -29.4% 26% -38.7%
20% -36.3% 22% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses33 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)90 / 112
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 20 $1 +$1 +114%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? Feb 20 $1 $0 +15%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Nexus (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Group St Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 08 $0 +$5 +1327%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: MYVRA GC vs No Sweat Blossom (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Latin Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs F5 Esports (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle M Feb 05 $1 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 05 $1 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 05 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 05 $1 +$2 +174%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 05 $1 +$2 +209%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 03 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 03 $1 +$1 +129%
Adelaide 36ers vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix Feb 03 $1 +$1 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8AM ET Feb 02 $1 +$2 +156%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 8AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 55d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 64d
Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 8¢ $1 64d
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 116d
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 116d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil BUY No 5¢ $1 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.05 · official $21.05 (match) · 162 history records