Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb7a9…fea8 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$155 (+5%) realized +$178 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%28W / 34L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$201
crypto 16% +$22
other 6% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -0.7% -10.1% 46% 42% -3.3%
≤30d 48 -0.7% -10.1% 46% 42% -3.3%
≤90d 48 -0.7% -10.1% 46% 42% -3.3%
all 62 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 42% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 42% -3.6%
10% -19.9% 42% -12.8%
15% -27.6% 42% -21.3%
20% -34.7% 34% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$22 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage253d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A 9INE 25¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $75 +$47 +62%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $45 −$26 -57%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$8 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $50 +$55 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$17 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$11 +72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$46 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 +$35 +139%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $11 +$27 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs T1 Academy (+1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$7 +109%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $247 +$22 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$10 +63%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $41 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$19 +120%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $286 −$19 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$43 +104%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$11 -42%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $140 +$50 +36%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$75 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $200 +$91 +46%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics - Game 2 Winner Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics - Game 3 Winner Jan 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 84¢ $122 31m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 51¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 12¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 35¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL 9INE 93¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 37¢ $40 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 96¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $33 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 66¢ $51 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 19h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 34¢ $24 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 20h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $61 20h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner SELL 9INE 91¢ $38 20h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $13 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 21h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY UCAM Esports Club 48¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 148 history records