Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B7 0xb7a8…866c sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% $0
other 42% +$6
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +19.5% +8.1% 55% 55% -8.0%
≤30d 29 +19.5% +8.1% 55% 55% -8.0%
≤90d 29 +19.5% +8.1% 55% 55% -8.0%
all 29 +19.5% +8.1% 55% 55% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 55% -8.0%
10% -2.2% 55% -16.8%
15% -11.7% 55% -24.8%
20% -20.4% 41% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$27 +90%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$23 +56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$38 +374%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $35 +$23 +66%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $3 +$8 +262%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$12 +119%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$28 +92%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 +$14 +36%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$1 -3%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$19 +47%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$6 +83%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 32¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $20 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 64¢ $40 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $15 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 27¢ $3 2d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $20 2d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) SELL Paper Rex 51¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $5 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 2d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $30 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $30 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL 24¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 51¢ $10 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $40.24 · 60 history records