Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7a8…2067 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$3
politics 19% −$2
other 18% −$3
crypto 8% −$1
world 8% −$1
economics 8% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 182 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 174
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage170d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $254 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $215 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $241 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $299 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $298 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $261 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $94 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $34 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $34 12d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $35 24d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $36 24d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $36 37d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $36 39d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $46 120d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $46 120d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $47 120d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $47 120d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $40 120d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $40 120d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $47 120d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $47 120d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $47 120d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $47 120d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $17 120d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $26 120d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $17 120d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $26 120d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $40 120d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $40 120d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $44 120d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $44 120d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $40 120d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 120d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 120d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 120d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.14 · official $46.14 (match) · 669 history records