Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7a8…9c50 sports 770 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 218d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$175 (-0%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%392W / 378L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$247
14 days−$207
30 days−$893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$890
sports 36% −$440
politics 3% −$539
other 2% −$225
crypto 2% −$39
weather 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -35.1% -41.3% 22% 0% -22.0%
≤30d 224 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 44% -23.9%
≤90d 368 -17.8% -25.7% 50% 41% -11.4%
all 770 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 43% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 43% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 37% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 33% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 28% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses392 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)770 / 770
History coverage219d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 770 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 23 $271 −$174 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $127 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $36 −$9 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 23 $46 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $130 −$40 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $76 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 22 $78 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $138 −$2 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $734 +$9 +1%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $172 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $85 +$14 +16%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $151 +$18 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $262 +$61 +23%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $29 +$6 +20%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $11 +$11 +104%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $57 +$10 +18%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $16 +$7 +42%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $8 +$4 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $29 −$21 -74%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $242 +$2 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $8 +$8 +103%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $8 +$21 +252%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $40 −$29 -71%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $12 +$5 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 18¢ $66 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 33¢ $19 12h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 59¢ $59 14h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $0 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $14 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 16h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 70¢ $47 18h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 73¢ $146 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 59¢ $53 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? SELL No 85¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? SELL No 71¢ $44 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 60¢ $26 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records