Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

B7 0xb7a6…89b2 sports 117 markets active 2d ago coverage 162d ⚠

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL +$57,140 (+14%) realized +$57,849 · open −$709

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate33%47W / 97L

Whale WR36%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3,578per market

Trades / day20.4pace

Fees−$3,466est.

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$2,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-29.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	33	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	53	-49.0%	-53.9%	19%	17%	-45.5%
≤90d	108	-23.8%	-31.0%	35%	31%	-35.1%
all	144	-21.8%	-29.2%	33%	29%	-37.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover20.4 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-29.2%	29%	-37.3%
10%	-36.0%	28%	-43.3%
15% ← realistic here	-42.2%	26%	-48.7%
20%	-47.9%	24%	-53.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 36% (≥$5,800) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -13% → late -31% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

27.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$4,532 vs −$4,281 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage

Net worth$2,408

Realized+$57,849

Unrealized−$709

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses47 / 97

Whale WR (big bets)36%

Est. fees paid−$3,466

Open positions5

Markets (closed)144 / 117

History coverage162d ⚠

Avg bet$3,578

Trades / day20.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 144 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	11¢	$1,320	$1,055	−$265 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$440	$505	+$65 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$690	$405	−$285 (-41%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$570	$345	−$225 (-39%)
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026?	Yes	64¢	65¢	$97	$98	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spurs vs. Thunder	Jun 28	$3,950	−$3,950	-100%
Raptors vs. Bucks	Jun 28	$1,900	−$1,900	-100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers	Jun 28	$10,500	−$10,500	-100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers	Jun 28	$1,250	−$1,250	-100%
Rockets vs. Kings	Jun 28	$25,000	−$25,000	-100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies	Jun 28	$5,965	−$5,965	-100%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves	Jun 28	$1,506	−$1,506	-100%
Pistons vs. Lakers	Jun 28	$10,850	−$10,850	-100%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies	Jun 28	$8,300	−$8,300	-100%
Warriors vs. Suns	Jun 28	$2,700	−$2,700	-100%
Suns vs. Wizards	Jun 28	$2,520	−$2,520	-100%
Nets vs. Mavericks	Jun 28	$25,200	−$25,200	-100%
Suns vs. Pelicans	Jun 28	$3,552	−$3,552	-100%
Raptors vs. Nets	Jun 28	$14,650	−$14,650	-100%
Warriors vs. Raptors	Jun 28	$26,238	−$26,238	-100%
76ers vs. Bulls	Jun 28	$5,367	−$5,367	-100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls	Jun 28	$2,100	−$2,100	-100%
Spurs vs. Hawks	Jun 28	$4,000	−$4,000	-100%
Celtics vs. Jazz	Jun 28	$18,544	−$18,544	-100%
Pacers vs. Celtics	Jun 28	$827	−$827	-100%
Suns vs. Heat	Jun 28	$2,450	−$2,450	-100%
Bulls vs. Rockets	Jun 28	$542	−$542	-100%
Hornets vs. Clippers	Jun 28	$10,724	−$10,724	-100%
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers	Jun 28	$1,150	−$1,150	-100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Jun 28	$4,500	−$4,500	-100%
Jazz vs. Spurs	Jun 28	$8,686	−$8,686	-100%
Lakers vs. Kings	Jun 28	$2,280	−$2,280	-100%
Heat vs. Knicks	Jun 28	$2,169	−$2,169	-100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans	Jun 28	$4,968	−$4,968	-100%
Clippers vs. Thunder	Jun 28	$135	−$135	-100%
Heat vs. Celtics	Jun 28	$2,800	−$2,800	-100%
Celtics vs. Pacers	Jun 28	$10,046	−$10,046	-100%
Wizards vs. Hornets	Jun 28	$1,550	−$1,550	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,180	+$818	+69%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 19	$490	−$360	-74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$240	$0	-0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$520	−$520	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$500	+$500	+100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5,800	−$374	-6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$316	−$200	-63%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$16,837	+$123	+1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30	$0	+0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$4,800	+$15,200	+317%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,000	−$512	-51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$6,600	−$5,057	-77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$7,600	+$12,400	+163%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$15,510	+$17,070	+110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$460	+$540	+117%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$9,100	−$9,100	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 06	$8,068	−$8,068	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026?	SELL Yes	65¢	$1	2d
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026?	SELL Yes	65¢	$20	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,998	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	SELL Morocco	13¢	$110	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	SELL Morocco	13¢	$20	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$279	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$21	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$3	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$3	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$2	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$3	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$3	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$1	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$31	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$142	8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$2	8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$1,180	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$69	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$1	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$48	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$10	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$19	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$1	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$19	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$24	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$3	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$18	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$1	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$24	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$1	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,408.31 · official $2,408.31 (match) · 3500 history records