Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7a5…73a4 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$129 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%52W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$32
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$4
crypto 21% +$10
politics 10% +$20
tech 9% +$10
world 6% +$28
sports 5% −$7
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 34 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 51 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.8%
all 53 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.8%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×228.92 per $1 lost it wins $228.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$954
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses52 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage116d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $329 $334 +$4 (+1%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of June? No 99¢ 64¢ $253 $162 −$91 (-36%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 29 above $40? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $129 $120 −$8 (-7%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethena reach $0.12 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of June? No 99¢ 63¢ $33 $21 −$12 (-36%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $126 +$2 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 Jun 23 $104 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $2.00? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $3.00? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $369 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $637 +$14 +2%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 13? Jun 13 $249 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? Jun 11 $103 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $278 +$5 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? Jun 10 $109 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $442 +$7 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 5? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $155 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $328 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Jun 01 $151 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31? Jun 01 $176 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $14 in May? Jun 01 $178 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in May? Jun 01 $311 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $934 +$20 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 30 $982 +$8 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $130? May 22 $980 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? May 18 $966 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 11? May 11 $969 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $969 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $972 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $963 +$8 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $953 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 12? Apr 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $900 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $150? Apr 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri Apr 11 $900 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 9? Apr 10 $900 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 8? Apr 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 8? Apr 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $928 +$22 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethena reach $0.12 in June? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 35h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $154 35h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 35h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $33 35h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 29 above $40? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 35h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 29 above $40? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 35h
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $94 5d
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $159 6d
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $126 7d
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $71 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 7d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 96¢ $29 7d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 95¢ $75 7d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 7d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $374 10d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $3.00? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 13d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $2.00? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 13d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 99¢ $66 13d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 99¢ $60 13d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 100¢ $67 13d
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $120 13d
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 13d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $315 13d
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $101 14d
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 14d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $151 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $953.67 · official $953.45 (match) · 213 history records