Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

B7 0xb7a5…6779 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$185 (+44%) realized +$185 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip

Net edge+74%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$68

7 days−$88

14 days−$88

30 days−$52

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+73.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-21.2%	-28.7%	50%	40%	-38.9%
≤30d	11	-12.9%	-21.2%	55%	45%	-23.9%
≤90d	11	-12.9%	-21.2%	55%	45%	-23.9%
all	13	+91.8%	+73.5%	62%	54%	+13.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+73.5%	54%	+13.0%
10%	+56.9%	54%	+2.2%
15%	+41.7%	38%	-7.7%
20%	+27.8%	31%	-16.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +92% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +230% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$28 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$185

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage154d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 13 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$171	−$102	-60%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$8	+$2	+32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$18	+$32	+178%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	Jun 21	$60	+$1	+2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20?	Jun 21	$19	−$19	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$34	+$16	+48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$6	+$2	+29%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$51	+$36	+70%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?	Feb 24	$10	+$72	+725%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-28?	Feb 09	$10	+$61	+610%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	67¢	$66	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$70	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	75¢	$8	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	8¢	$10	19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	36¢	$18	19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	75¢	$7	3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$6	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$34	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	8d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	73d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?	SELL Yes	66¢	$82	119d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	119d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	128d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	SELL Yes	61¢	$61	134d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	BUY Yes	50¢	$50	136d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-28?	SELL Yes	75¢	$60	146d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-28?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	146d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20?	BUY Yes	2¢	$19	154d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 31 history records