Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb79e…f7f1 other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate72%49W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$16
crypto 16% +$11
economics 11% −$1
world 10% −$1
sports 5% −$7
tech 4% $0
politics 4% +$10
finance 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +22.6% +10.9% 100% 83% +9.2%
≤90d 32 +1.8% -7.9% 78% 31% -9.5%
all 68 +3.3% -6.5% 72% 29% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 29% -9.3%
10% -15.5% 15% -18.0%
15% -23.7% 7% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses49 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)68 / 86
History coverage137d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+52%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 55¢ 20¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 81¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 +$3 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 03 $16 +$4 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 03 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 03 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $7 +$2 +36%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 04 $9 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $14 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $20 +$1 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 04 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 04 $15 +$2 +13%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $18 +$5 +29%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 29 $23 $0 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 25 $29 −$15 -52%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 03 $10 +$1 +8%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $61 +$3 +5%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $65 −$13 -20%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 28 $10 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 28 $9 +$1 +9%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 28 $14 +$3 +19%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 28 $21 +$1 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 11 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $19 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 08 $13 +$3 +20%
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 08 $7 +$3 +39%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 08 $9 +$1 +8%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 08 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? Mar 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Mar 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 04 $14 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 04 $59 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $35 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $37 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $33 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $21 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $22 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $23 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $24 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $22 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $24 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 89¢ $14 7d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 13d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 85¢ $13 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $13 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $13 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 20d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 20d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.46 · official $44.48 (match) · 328 history records