Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb79d…1ad9 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,489 (+10%) realized +$7,489 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%38W / 20L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1,330per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$5,493
other 36% +$152
sports 14% −$3,198
politics 3% +$257
crypto 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.5% -5.5% 61% 61% -18.5%
≤30d 46 +9.4% -1.0% 65% 57% -5.4%
≤90d 58 +5.8% -4.3% 66% 50% -5.2%
all 58 +5.8% -4.3% 66% 50% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 50% -5.2%
10% -13.4% 36% -14.3%
15% -21.8% 28% -22.6%
20% -29.5% 17% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$603) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$357 vs −$545 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses38 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage45d
Avg bet$1,330
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 27 $6,404 −$33 -0%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $3,725 −$3,707 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $846 −$827 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $346 −$147 -42%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $355 +$342 +96%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $404 +$195 +48%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $43 +$37 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $304 +$213 +70%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $603 +$128 +21%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $403 +$161 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,870 +$474 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $436 −$307 -70%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $554 +$172 +31%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,520 +$1,159 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,181 −$949 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12,150 +$256 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9,800 +$2,228 +23%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,013 −$784 -77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,433 −$2,759 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,822 +$1,191 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7,053 −$1,280 -18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $420 +$59 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,474 +$261 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $490 −$74 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14,045 +$6,212 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 23 $9 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 23 $9 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $2,423 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $3,213 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $59 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $441 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $7 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $505 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 1¢ $12 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $705 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 31¢ $193 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $41 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $141 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 3h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 3h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 3h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $167 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 6h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $152 6h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 27h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 27h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 27h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 29h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $43 30h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 39h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $41 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 42h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $304 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $603 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records