Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb79c…1ccf other 56 markets active 11h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$607 (-2%) realized −$637 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$557
14 days−$557
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$619
other 14% +$173
economics 11% −$6
sports 9% −$30
politics 5% +$12
crypto 5% +$77
finance 3% −$24
tech 3% −$147
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.0% -24.0% 17% 17% -23.7%
≤30d 8 -10.3% -18.9% 38% 25% -18.7%
≤90d 24 -11.2% -19.6% 46% 17% -13.1%
all 50 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 14% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 14% -11.6%
10% -24.0% 4% -20.1%
15% -31.3% 2% -27.8%
20% -38.0% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$604) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$62 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$1,324
Realized−$637
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)50 / 56
History coverage536d
Avg bet$469
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $728 $744 +$16 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? No 94¢ 94¢ $320 $321 +$2 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $216 $226 +$10 (+5%)
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $27 $30 +$2 (+8%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $340 −$85 -25%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $952 −$263 -28%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $846 −$139 -16%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $604 +$94 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $540 −$98 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 10 $270 −$65 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $873 +$94 +11%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? May 23 $101 +$2 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $222 −$7 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 17 $618 −$19 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 17 $629 −$35 -6%
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves? Apr 17 $874 −$121 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $5,985 +$113 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 17 $3,188 −$291 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $187 −$5 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $148 −$12 -8%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $44 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 14 $264 +$35 +13%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 14 $379 +$10 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 07 $98 +$2 +2%
Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $110 +$14 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $600 +$38 +6%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $110 +$11 +10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Feb 26 $95 +$3 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 26 $328 +$5 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 26 $285 +$15 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 30 $10 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $900 +$111 +12%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 31 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 31 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 30 $26 +$11 +45%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 31 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jun 29 $24 $0 -2%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Mar 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Mar 10 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Mar 10 $201 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Mar 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Mar 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 28 $1,071 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance? Jan 03 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 03 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 31 $998 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $32 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 29 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? BUY No 94¢ $31 10h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? BUY No 94¢ $157 10h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? BUY No 94¢ $106 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 12¢ $255 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $43 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $6 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $4 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $1 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $2 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $432 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $30 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $1 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $1 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $2 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $143 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,323.82 · official $1,323.82 (match) · 596 history records