Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb79c…f6c6 world 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-3%) realized −$166 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%51W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$75
14 days−$248
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$125
sports 8% −$217
crypto 2% −$1
other 2% −$52
finance 0% −$20
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.2% +9.7% 67% 50% +8.3%
≤30d 13 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 23% -39.0%
≤90d 59 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 37% -10.7%
all 101 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 41% -11.8%
10% -16.9% 35% -20.2%
15% -24.9% 23% -27.9%
20% -32.3% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$28 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses51 / 50
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage108d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $79 −$7 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $236 +$74 +31%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $401 −$323 -80%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $79 −$78 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $190 −$80 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $241 +$9 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $10 −$7 -66%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $101 −$21 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $12 −$7 -58%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $28 −$23 -80%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $84 +$116 +138%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 18 $103 −$11 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $368 −$143 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $33 −$19 -56%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $70 +$21 +30%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $721 +$46 +6%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 16 $4 +$6 +133%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $2 −$1 -70%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $61 +$79 +128%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $81 −$16 -20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $429 −$132 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $390 +$374 +96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $84 +$66 +79%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $132 −$20 -15%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $225 +$127 +57%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $156 +$4 +3%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 03 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026? Apr 01 $130 +$14 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Mar 31 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $95 −$10 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $4 +$6 +156%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $147 +$9 +6%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? Mar 26 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 202 Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $57 +$13 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 46m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 46m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 46m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 46m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 46m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $72 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $173 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $26 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.22 · official $34.22 (match) · 519 history records