Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B7 0xb799…7a71 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$20 (+16%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+21.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+34.6%	+21.7%	100%	100%	+20.7%
≤30d	3	+34.6%	+21.7%	100%	100%	+20.7%
≤90d	3	+34.6%	+21.7%	100%	100%	+20.7%
all	3	+34.6%	+21.7%	100%	100%	+20.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.7%	100%	+20.7%
10%	+10.1%	100%	+9.2%
15%	-0.5%	33%	-1.4%
20%	-10.3%	0%	-11.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$43	$43	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$34	+$10	+30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$26	+$9	+33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$19	+$8	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$45	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$44	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$34	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$35	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$26	32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$19	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.59 · official $42.59 (match) · 7 history records