Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb796…f221 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$600 (-51%) realized −$600 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$528
7 days−$528
14 days−$649
30 days−$649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$553
sports 7% −$80
other 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.1% -27.7% 25% 25% -56.4%
≤30d 13 -43.0% -48.5% 15% 15% -59.9%
≤90d 13 -43.0% -48.5% 15% 15% -59.9%
all 13 -43.0% -48.5% 15% 15% -59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 15% -59.9%
10% -53.4% 15% -63.8%
15% -57.9% 15% -67.3%
20% -62.0% 15% -70.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$93 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$600
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $149 −$141 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $112 +$378 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -92%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $74 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $409 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $490 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $271 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 34¢ $23 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 33¢ $25 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 9d
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records