Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb795…d981 sports 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$42 (+3%) realized +$37 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%94W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$41
14 days+$75
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$47
other 22% $0
politics 1% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +9.0% -1.4% 76% 67% -1.2%
≤30d 136 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 54% -6.5%
≤90d 136 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 54% -6.5%
all 136 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 54% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 54% -6.5%
10% -19.4% 37% -15.4%
15% -27.1% 26% -23.6%
20% -34.3% 12% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses94 / 42
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions25
Markets (closed)136 / 161
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Alexander Zverev 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 74¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 78¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 66¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Brandon Nakashima 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Elina Svitolina 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Tommy Paul 75¢ 75¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Grigor Dimitrov 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Max Alcala Gurri 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Marie Bouzkova 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Otto Virtanen 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Kilian Feldbausch 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Linda Noskova 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Petr Brunclik 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Frances Tiafoe 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $70 +$3 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $55 +$3 +5%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$13 -63%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -67%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $25 +$2 +6%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 15 $5 −$1 -29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $5 −$2 -31%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Onclin Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 21m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 22m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $10 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 76¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill BUY Otto Virtanen 79¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Petr Brunclik 71¢ $5 1h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata BUY Max Alcala Gurri 89¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Marie Bouzkova 83¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 72¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 83¢ $5 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 88¢ $5 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 81¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 70¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 80¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 66¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $5 3h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 95¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $5 4h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 7h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You SELL Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 35¢ $6 9h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 24¢ $5 9h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $50 12h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 70¢ $5 12h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 97¢ $50 12h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 78¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.62 · official $254.65 (match) · 313 history records