Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb793…50ea crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+3%) realized +$9 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 33% -11.1%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 33% -11.1%
≤90d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 33% -11.1%
all 9 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 33% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 33% -11.1%
10% -19.5% 33% -19.6%
15% -27.3% 33% -27.4%
20% -34.4% 22% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$25 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 21 history records