Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb792…c55c crypto 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%84W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$154
14 days+$85
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$323
other 14% +$174
sports 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.2% -48.6% 40% 40% +14.0%
≤30d 256 -10.5% -19.0% 33% 33% -13.3%
≤90d 256 -10.5% -19.0% 33% 33% -13.3%
all 256 -10.5% -19.0% 33% 33% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 33% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 30% -21.6%
15% -33.9% 26% -29.1%
20% -40.4% 23% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses84 / 172
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage22d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 96¢ $97 $119 +$22 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $198 +$95 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $371 +$80 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$9 +618%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$8 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$8 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$8 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +237%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$32 +620%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $98 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $198 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $214 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $371 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $22 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.95 · official $118.95 (match) · 1217 history records