Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb790…16e5 other 571 markets active 11h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$49 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%195W / 344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$55
14 days−$63
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$26
sports 31% +$126
world 4% −$116
crypto 2% −$8
finance 2% +$18
tech 1% −$41
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -32.2% -38.7% 20% 20% -51.8%
≤30d 48 -37.7% -43.6% 21% 21% +13.1%
≤90d 527 -25.0% -32.1% 36% 33% -9.8%
all 539 -24.8% -32.0% 36% 33% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 33% -9.5%
10% -38.5% 30% -18.2%
15% -44.4% 28% -26.1%
20% -49.9% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses195 / 344
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions32
Markets (closed)539 / 571
History coverage92d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $210 $301 +$91 (+43%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-39%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-57%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $18 −$17 (-49%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 47¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $4 −$20 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$2 +109%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 +$13 +650%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $50 +$19 +39%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $45 +$163 +362%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $25 −$25 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 3 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 3 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 3 - 2 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 18 $3 +$3 +98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$13 +436%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 15h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 35h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 35h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $2 39h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 39h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 39h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 39h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 39h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 48¢ $5 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.58 · official $706.58 (match) · 1307 history records