Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb78d…0d5b world 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$665 (+1%) realized +$242 · open +$423
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate60%78W / 53L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$577per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$111
14 days+$239
30 days+$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$445
other 18% +$455
finance 18% +$225
sports 7% +$205
crypto 2% −$31
politics 2% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 27% -7.9%
≤30d 20 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 25% -6.7%
≤90d 55 -2.9% -12.1% 64% 16% -9.5%
all 131 -0.9% -10.4% 60% 19% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 19% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 11% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 7% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$646) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$57 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$4,484
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$423
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses78 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions5
Markets (closed)131 / 136
History coverage174d
Avg bet$577
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 72¢ 82¢ $2,787 $3,184 +$396 (+14%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $776 $761 −$15 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $250 $296 +$46 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $106 $103 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $403 +$9 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $220 +$1 +1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $195 +$25 +13%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $416 −$20 -5%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $227 +$31 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $118 +$41 +35%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $154 −$37 -24%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $1,009 +$15 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $508 −$49 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $1,020 −$11 -1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $1,962 +$107 +6%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$40 -39%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $4,104 +$168 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $1,000 −$40 -4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $190 +$145 +76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $504 +$163 +32%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $180 +$7 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $246 −$63 -26%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $294 −$49 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $1,317 +$42 +3%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 07 $36 +$3 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $2,836 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 28 $1,703 +$13 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 26 $1,614 +$22 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 25 $1,694 +$41 +2%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $1,312 +$4 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,000 +$312 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 19 $1,417 +$28 +2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $1,355 −$787 -58%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $898 +$14 +2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $495 +$10 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 12 $2,914 +$245 +8%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $800 +$48 +6%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $1,295 +$57 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,459 −$243 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $517 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $542 +$23 +4%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 06 $1,309 −$14 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 06 $500 −$6 -1%
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? Apr 06 $630 +$89 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 03 $1,729 −$118 -7%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Apr 01 $982 +$103 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 01 $95 +$15 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $1,704 +$25 +1%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Mar 31 $517 +$10 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $207 10m
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $201 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 80¢ $204 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 82¢ $221 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 82¢ $1 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $220 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 65¢ $200 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 65¢ $20 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $195 2h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $201 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 75¢ $396 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $416 3h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $258 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $159 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $118 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $118 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $109 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $109 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $776 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $776 10h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $227 12h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $226 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 31h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $145 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $247 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $237 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $233 2d
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $1,009 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $1,009 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,484.25 · official $4,484.25 (match) · 467 history records