Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb789…18e7 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$148 (-28%) realized −$143 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$143
other 26% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-66.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -63.1% -66.6% 11% 11% -49.2%
≤30d 9 -63.1% -66.6% 11% 11% -49.2%
≤90d 9 -63.1% -66.6% 11% 11% -49.2%
all 9 -63.1% -66.6% 11% 11% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.6% 11% -49.2%
10% ← realistic here -69.8% 11% -54.1%
15% -72.7% 11% -58.5%
20% -75.4% 11% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$26 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $79 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$67 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $79 −$27 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.96 · official $119.68 · 24 history records