Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B7 0xb787…ad0a sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+0%) realized −$139 · open +$424
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%92W / 59L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$543est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$331
7 days−$973
14 days−$1,414
30 days−$1,414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,435
other 6% +$2,467
crypto 1% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 56% 50% -21.8%
≤30d 57 -27.1% -34.1% 42% 39% -13.1%
≤90d 57 -27.1% -34.1% 42% 39% -13.1%
all 151 +5.4% -4.7% 61% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 53% -9.6%
10% -13.8% 40% -18.2%
15% -22.1% 28% -26.1%
20% -29.8% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$334 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$1,561
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$424
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses92 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$543
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage210d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 100¢ $1,137 $1,561 +$424 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $195 −$195 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $800 +$554 +69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $630 +$260 +41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $500 +$129 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $420 +$86 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $300 +$120 +40%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $395 +$508 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $630 +$203 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $298 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $781 −$781 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $795 −$795 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $300 +$82 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,208 +$2,185 +99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $692 −$441 -64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $914 +$203 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $771 +$235 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $172 +$78 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $298 +$63 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $524 −$55 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $300 +$225 +75%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,303 +$468 +36%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $266 −$266 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $670 +$641 +96%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $749 −$83 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $299 −$299 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $288 −$21 -7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $599 +$96 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,122 +$1,003 +89%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,046 +$76 +7%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $985 −$985 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8,184 +$1,046 +13%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $277 −$277 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis (BO3) Jun 07 $126 −$126 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jun 07 $197 −$197 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) Jun 07 $202 −$202 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 07 $1,131 −$711 -63%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) Jun 07 $585 −$585 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) Jun 07 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) Jun 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win (BO3) Jun 07 $735 +$200 +27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) Jun 07 $544 −$544 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis (BO3) Jun 07 $108 +$166 +154%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora (BO3) Jun 07 $174 −$106 -60%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) Jun 07 $113 −$113 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 79¢ $147 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 21¢ $146 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 72¢ $999 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $999 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $354 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $355 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $542 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 27¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 27¢ $12 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 27¢ $140 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 27¢ $40 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $110 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $42 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $43 5h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL REKONIX 99¢ $890 6h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $6 8h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $63 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $201 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $154 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $154 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,560.56 · official $1,560.56 (match) · 786 history records