Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb783…94ab other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$9
politics 37% −$8
sports 9% −$88
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 118 -4.5% -13.6% 9% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -10.1%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.7%
15% -29.4% 1% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage124d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $278 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $285 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $168 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $323 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $249 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $459 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $192 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $324 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $184 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $365 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $138 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $394 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 24d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 24d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $187 33d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $141 41d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $141 42d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $169 42d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $169 42d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 42d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 42d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $187 43d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $187 44d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $161 44d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $161 45d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $170 45d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 45d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 45d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 45d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $168 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 415 history records